Is your HD DVR important?
I've been reading and participating in some interesting internal Microsoft debates. I'm doing my own research and thinking on the subject of HDTV recording. There are many questions and few answers. One question that popped into my head is, "Does anyone care about their HDTV recording device?"
Obviously some people care. HDTV enthusiasts certainly care, but they don't count because until really recently, we weren't mainstream. Tivo certainly cares, but they are in the business to care. Tivo also knows that in order to survive, then need to sell more boxes. Here's a question for you, "Is Tivo a Microsoft partner or competitor?"
As you know, Microsoft produced a really kewl version of Windows XP called Media Center Edition 2005. MCE 2005 has done really well from a sales perspective. Of course it helps that many of the big OEM's offered it as the default OS for the machines they were selling. But what percentage of those machines actually record a TV signal, much less a high definition TV signal for later playback?
I would venture to guess that most people that own a HDTV, also have cable, fiber or satellite feeds of HDTV programming. I think it's a fair bet that of those HDTV owners that have a subscription, many have a HD DVR of some kind. A high percentage will be a crappy DVR from the local cable, telco or satellite provider.
I use the word crappy for one reason... small hard drive size. It's rare to see a HD DVR from the local provider that offers a large hard drive, or is extensible with an external hard drive. Sure, some people complain about other aspects of the DVR like the menus, search, scheduling, etc. but the hard drive is going to become a focus for the mainstream very soon. You see, as people get hooked on DVR capabilities, they get used to the creature comfort of having a couple of weeks or more of their favorite programming. Several weeks is easy on most DVR's when recording standard definition. Not with high definition bit rates. Kiss that hard drive space good bye.
When do people watch video?
I took a look at Mark Cuban's blog this evening to see if he has an opinion on high definition recording and where the market is headed. Low and behold, he has a post on online video viewing that struck me as interesting, but it isn't really the same question. Or is it?
Mark talks about peoples viewing habits, or more accurately how content providers might control that, and thus control advertising revenue.
That's precisely why DVR's are becoming more and more mainstream. People don't want to be controlled. They want more control. That's also why the set top box is morphing. Mark talks some about it in his post on the future of personal computing.
So why the big debate inside Microsoft?
Ok, big debate is a stretch. But there are a lot of passionate enthusiasts on this subject. Like all companies, we want to see a product or feature succeed and help make the product sell, thus generating a good revenue stream. Enter from stage left, Windows Vista. As you might imagine, we'd like for the product to be successful. One of the features I thought would help drive that success is the OCUR feature. You'll notice this link takes you directly to the area on the CableLabs website.
OCUR gives Windows Vista the ability to record HD content from a cable or fiber optic feed. There are strings attached. CableLabs decides who can hook up to the various cable systems, and what type of device is allowed. In the case of Windows Vista, you have to have a special machine only sold by approved OEM suppliers. So far, the machines that have shipped with that capability are pretty pricey. That's part of the concern and debate. The other part of the concern and debate revolves around digital rights management (DRM).
I think we see the potential for Windows Vista to be the killer HD DVR. It already has the capability right now. No longer are we stuck only recording over-the-air. Now we can record a series like Rome or Entourage, or a movie off Showtime, HBO, etc. This is also the reason CableLabs has the platform locked down. They want to make sure you don't record a HD movie and burn DVD's for sale on eBay. I don't blame them for that. The restrictions do hamper you from building your own machine. You cannot do that and use the OCUR feature with Windows Vista, unless of course someone hacks a way in.
So do people care about their HD DVR? How does Microsoft make money on it?
Now that's the question... Sure, we'll sell the high end version of Windows Vista and a few people will buy the pricey PC's that support the feature, but what we really need is a box sitting in the entertainment center that has a great interface like Media Center, a big fat hard drive, wired to the internet, and lots of other stuff like Xbox gaming. We need the ability for you to get a kewl box like that at a great price (buy or rent).
People will care about that. They don't know it yet, but they will. My current HD DVR gives me about 20-30 hours of HD recording space. An OCUR based Windows Vista PC gives me unlimited recording space. Get the picture?
The real question boils down to cost and a special purpose device versus a general purpose device. How special is your HD DVR? Do you care?
