What will the industry look like in 15 years time?
I've been at Microsoft for 15 years now. A lot of things have changed in that time, for example the whole social network thing, blogs - heck even to some extent the internet.... But with the benefit of hindsight, I wonder how much of it couldn't have been predicted? For example: -
- Current machines seem incredible when you compare them with what was available 15 years ago. Their size, power, functionality and cost would all have amazed me in 1993. But really, it's just the effect of Mores law in action, and that was well known in 1993.
- The web is something that at first glance would never have been expected, but 15 years ago, although most people were either not online at all or were using BBS systems over modems, the internet did exist - I was using it at Xerox - as did the work of Tim Berners-Lee which really started the whole thing off. Although what the web turned into would have been hard to imagine in 1993, it's not so hard to see it in retrospect.
- The pervasiveness of computing is to my mind one of the REAL changes - 15 years ago, computers were really only used by businesses and geeks. Now they are everywhere, everyone has one*, and everyone uses one to stay conencted socially. For example, my daughter spends her entire life (it seems) text messaging her friends on her mobile phone. Compare everything about that scenario, including the size of the device, it's connectivity, the fact that all her friends are also texting each other with what the world was like 15 years ago... But again, these are all largely incremental changes, with a clear path from 1993 to 2008.
- The merging of entertainment with computing is also an interesting trend, and perhaps less obvious in retrospect than most of the above - but again, once you add in the digitization of media, it's fairly simple to connect the dots from the cassette walkman of 1993 to the Zune of today, and even the VCR to the Media Center.
- A change which I think is likely to cause real problems in the years to come is the perception of the computer industry as a whole. 15 years ago it was still considered to be an exciting career, but I think that is changing now, and this is born out by the reduction in the numbers of students taking IT related courses in university. Given the overall changes in demographics as well, we may be in for a rough time as far finding the IT skills needed to run the world!
So, after a quick look back at the last 15 years, what could we reasonably say could change in the next 15? Here are a few thoughts from me - I'd be interested to hear what you think?
- Perhaps we might get to the point of a single "ID Card" - one card on which you can keep all the info you need, and which can be used to replace all the cards currently sat in your wallet (go on - count them!), your passport, your access to computers etc. I can see some people wanting this as an embedded chip, but I think the majority would still not be happy with the required surgery or even injection. Of course, this would require real advances in security over today, where issues are in the news all the time - even though usually caused by human error.
- Ubiquitous computing is a possibilty - at least the ability to walk up to any computer anywhere and get access to your information, files etc. Of course this requires significant progress on a number of areas, but I don't see anything needed which would require technological miracles.
- There has been recent talk of dramatically increasing the capacity of batteries. Add inductive charging to this, and perhaps we can at last past the tyranny of the power cord?
- The web is obviously going to get bigger, better, faster, more accessible and just cooler. I'm waiting for FIOS where I live, but in some parts of the world it appears that they are jumping straight to wireless (cell phones) without stringing up loads of copper. I can see the web and the personal computer melding into a single system where logic and data sits wherevere makes best sense, and the user (and possibly even the developer) doesn't really care. Again imagine being able to go to any machine and do anything you need to.
- As far as social is concerned, I think this is one area where that are still real opportunites for development. To take a really bad example, think of the Borg from StarTrek. Completely connected to each other. Now take a better example - you've got a widget you don't want anymore, and would happily give it to someone else if you could only find them or have a question which you don't even know how to go about finding the answer to. Imagine simply being able to say "Does anyone want my widget" or "What's the meaning of life" and the systems would find the right person to talk to. No more advertising on eBay or Craiglist and just hoping that the right person is actively searching for your widget during a one week period, no more trowing questions out on odd forums, resulting in long discussions on if the meaning of life really is 42 or not....
Anyway - a few random thoughts from me - what do YOU think will change in the next 15 years?
* Actually, "everyone has one" is a complete lie! It may be largely true in the developed world, but the truth is that over 30% of the earths population still doesn't even have access to electicity, never mind computers.
