Software+Services – Pie in the Sky?
Google’s all about Web stuff, Netbooks (small computers exclusively for accessing the web) is all the rage, even Microsoft is going cloud with Azure and Live. Everything is about the cloud!
If you follow certain blogs and media, you could easily think that the age of rich software running on a PC is OVER! Some would even say, FINALLY OVER.
Not so fast!
While I am really looking forward to see what services in the cloud can bring us, I' think that pronouncing the death of software as we know it, seems a little premature. In the words of Mark Twain:
“The report of my death was an exaggeration”
Today, I believe that the best examples of Cloud Services are closely tied to great desktop software. Think about iTunes! or the Zune software. Both uses a combination of a PC, a Portable Media Player and backend Services in the cloud. I would go as far as to say that the Zune software dials it up a notch by adding a web (cloud) based community, often time referred to as “The Social”. Both music services are great examples of Software+Services.
In fact, both in the consumer space ( where I live after 5 PM) and in the Corporate space, I believe the combination will the killer application. Before you accuse me of being out of my mind, hear me out.
There’s no denying that the internet is here to stay and that the software industry should take advantage of it. BUT, to ignore the power of the client on you desk, in your lap or in your hand is downright stupid! By the same token, the hardware running in most datacenters is also going to continue to be more and more powerful.
Cloud Services and Businesses
Let’s start with the corporate space.
IT Rule #1, never outsource systems that represents your core business! And it doesn’t matter whether you run it in the cloud or with a traditional our-sourcing partner. Also, your government has a say too. All over the world there are rules around how your business should treat your customer’s data. In the US we have laws about how you must treat Personally Identifiable Information, in Europe there’s the EU Data Protection Directive. And the punishment for mistreating it is steep. And let’s not forget legal action taken by the customers themselves.
But that doesn’t mean you can’t outsource or take advantage of the internet, it simply means that there’s a class of applications that will stay in the datacenter for a very long time. Services such as email, collaborative applications, etc have started to become available and businesses should consider taking advantage of them. Just make sure you pick the right partner.
Cloud Services and Consumers
Now to the consumer in all of us.
The notion that there’s a class of devices solely dedicated to access services and data in the cloud is ridiculous! SmartPhones (incl. iPhones) accesses local applications such as contact, music libraries, etc. Netbooks really are small laptops (not so long time ago we called them Ultra Portable Laptops).
But the most ridiculous perception of all, is that we no longer need faster computers or more storage, because all we need is a fast internet connection and everything will be just fine!
First off, Netbooks are simply the result of Moore’s law, but rather than stuffing more transistors into a die the same size as the previous, Intel decided to shrink the die of a single core processor. the result was very energy efficient processor called the Atom. And as vendor got creative about taking advantage of this little energy miser in very small, low-cost packages, the result was a good-enough-for-a-lot-of-tasks very compact laptop category. Personally, I’m looking forward to see what will happen in the 10” – 11” (screen size) form factor. According to certain analyst’s the segment will grow from around 2 million units the year to 45 million in 2012.
And it doesn’t stop with Netbooks, UMPCs, etc. As Intel and AMD continue to take advantage of Moore’s law, we will see some very capable laptops, Desktops, Netbooks and smaller-than-Netbooks devices. Combine that with the generally downward trending prices of memory and storage (hard drive and solid state) will bring us a lot of interesting user scenarios moving forward, especially combined with power of the internet.
But, let’s not loose sight of the fact that as we are moving to everything being digital, the need for faster processors and more storage is part of the picture. A 8 megapixel images will take up between 4 and 7 MB (depending on whether you shot JPEG or RAW).
For example, the steadily increasing resolution of digital cameras and the number of pictures we all take, will require more storage. Video cameras are now fast becoming High Definition. One hour of (compressed) HD Video takes up at least 4GB.
And if you think about uploading all that stuff to the cloud, consider the fact that your upload speed is a far cry from your download speed. for instance, my providers standard package gives 8Mbps down, but only 768Kbps upload. Also, consider that your photo storing service could disappear, just like Digital Railroad did a couple of months ago, without leaving you any time to download your precious pictures and videos.
Enough with the doom and gloom.
Let me finish the rant with saying that I strongly believe that it’s not about the power of the Internet, or power of Moore’s law, or the power of software running on the device. It’s about the combination! The funny thing is that we’ve had this conversation before. We used to talk about Client/Server applications, that became Client/Server/Services applications!
Cloud Services are destined to go the way of the Dodo, long live Software+Services.
